Meteorological agencies predict peak in late 2026, global extreme weather risks escalating sharply
Major global meteorological agencies have issued consecutive warnings that a record-breaking “super El Niño” is rapidly taking shape in the Pacific Ocean, expected to reach peak intensity between November 2026 and February 2027. The latest forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the China Meteorological Administration, and other authoritative bodies all indicate that this event could surpass the three previous super El Niños of 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2014–2016, potentially becoming the strongest since records began in 1950.
Near-certainty in forecasts, intensity may set new records
The World Meteorological Organization’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, released on July 31, shows that El Niño is steadily intensifying and is expected to dominate global climate patterns from August to October 2026. Multi‑model ensemble forecasts indicate that seasonal average sea surface temperature anomalies in the key monitoring region are projected to exceed +2.9°C.
The latest data from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center put the probability of a “very strong” El Niño during October–December 2026 at 81%. The UK Met Office notes that current sea surface temperature anomalies could exceed 2°C, with some predictions pointing even higher, reaching record-breaking levels.
China’s National Climate Centre reports that the equatorial central‑eastern Pacific reached El Niño status in May, with sea temperatures continuing to warm in June and having entered the monitoring range of a strong El Niño event by July – the probability of a super El Niño is increasing. The event is expected to persist at least until spring 2027, with a total duration close to the historical average of 10–11 months for El Niño episodes.
The Hong Kong Observatory further warns that the sea surface temperature anomaly index in the key monitoring area reached +2.0°C in July – warming faster than during the previous three super El Niños at the same stage. By November, the index could even exceed +3.0°C – if realised, that would shatter the historical record since satellite measurements began in the 1980s.
Global impacts: from food security to energy markets
Speaking at a special ministerial consultation on El Niño preparedness held in Addis Ababa on July 30, African Union Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment, Ms. Josefa Sacko, warned that many parts of the African continent face severe challenges, including extreme drought, devastating floods, prolonged heatwaves, disruptions to food production, water shortages, and disease outbreaks. Experts from the African Development Bank estimate that this event could inflict economic losses of US$10–20 billion on affected African countries and trigger large‑scale population displacement.
China’s National Climate Centre chief forecaster Chen Lijuan noted that El Niño affects China’s climate differently at various stages: during the developing summer, typhoon activity in the northwest Pacific tends to increase in frequency and intensity; during the autumn and winter when the event peaks, southern China experiences significantly above‑average rainfall; and during the decaying spring and summer, flood risks are elevated in the Yangtze River basin and areas south of the river.
El Niño’s influence extends far beyond weather. The World Bank, in its Commodity Markets Outlook, points out that El Niño typically drives up agricultural commodity prices. Key crops such as Brazilian coffee, Indian rice, and Indonesian palm oil may suffer reduced yields due to abnormal weather, pushing global food prices higher. At the same time, hotter weather increases electricity demand for cooling, while drought curtails hydropower generation, potentially exacerbating volatility in energy markets.
UN Secretary‑General issues urgent call: “The warm‑up is over”
In a press briefing on July 31, UN Secretary‑General António Guterres issued a stark warning: “El Niño has not only arrived at our doorstep – it has entered the house and is turning up the thermostat. And this is only the ‘warm‑up’. El Niño is strengthening – adding fuel to a planet that is already on fire.”
Guterres emphasised: “The warm‑up is over. We cannot wait for the main course.” He urged all nations to take immediate action to cope with extreme heat and to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
WMO Secretary‑General Celeste Saulo said: “El Niño is one of the most closely monitored climate phenomena on Earth. But forecasts alone do not prevent disasters – people do. This El Niño is occurring against a backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising global temperatures, providing governments and communities with a window to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold.”
2027 likely to become the hottest year on record
Scientists warn that due to the lag effect of ocean‑atmosphere interactions, the global climate impacts of a strong El Niño often peak in the following year. The WMO’s annual Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update projects that global average temperatures are likely to remain at or near historic highs from 2026 to 2030.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long‑range forecasting at the UK Met Office, stated that this El Niño is “very likely to cause a temporary spike in global mean temperatures, with residual heat possibly making 2027 the warmest year since global temperature records began in 1850.”
As the El Niño event continues to strengthen, the international community faces a severe test that could reshape the global climate, economic stability, and food security landscape. The time left for nations to prepare is ticking away, second by second.
