Incoming British Prime Minister Andy Burnham is expected to press ahead with the controversial transfer of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, according to senior Foreign Office officials, setting up a potential transatlantic clash with the Trump administration over one of the Indian Ocean’s most strategically vital military outposts.
A senior UK Foreign Office official confirmed that the policy is “unlikely to change” under Burnham, who is set to officially take office on July 20. The revelation comes despite the United States having previously raised security concerns and placed the deal on indefinite hold, and in the face of fierce opposition from Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.
The Deal at a Glance
Under the terms of the agreement struck in 2024, the UK would transfer sovereignty over the archipelago to Mauritius while retaining a 99-year lease over Diego Garcia, the largest island, which hosts a vital joint UK-US military base. The lease is valued at up to £35 billion ($47 billion) over the next century. The deal was intended to resolve a long-running legal dispute after the International Court of Justice and the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea ruled that Britain had acted unlawfully by detaching the islands from Mauritius in 1965, prior to Mauritius’ independence in 1968.
However, the deal hit a major roadblock in January when President Donald Trump publicly denounced it as an “act of great stupidity”. By April, the UK government was forced to shelve legislation to ratify the agreement after the US withdrew its support.
Despite the diplomatic freeze, Mauritian ministers have been assured that the new British prime minister will not reverse the policy. According to reports, a virtual meeting between UK and Mauritian officials on July 2 confirmed that London’s position remains unchanged. Burnham’s allies have indicated he is prepared to push the deal through, viewing it as the completion of the decolonization process—a position long championed by Port Louis.
“The British side indicated that a new Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, should be appointed by July 20, but that British policy regarding the Chagos archipelago should not change,” reported Mauritian media following the talks.
U.S. Security Concerns Loom Large
The deal’s future remains deeply entangled with U.S. national security interests. Diego Garcia is a critical staging post for American and British military operations in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific, particularly amid the ongoing conflict with Iran. Washington has voiced anxiety over handing the archipelago to Mauritius, citing the island nation’s diplomatic ties with China and Iran.
US officials have reportedly drawn up proposals to bypass the UK entirely and negotiate a direct purchase of the islands from Mauritius to secure the base. “Diego Garcia is a key strategic military asset for both the UK and the US, which has protected our shared security for nearly 60 years,” a UK government spokesperson previously said, emphasizing that maintaining operational control was “the entire basis for the UK-Mauritius Agreement”.
The Chagossian Question
The deal also faces complications from the indigenous Chagossian population, who were forcibly expelled from the islands by Britain in the 1970s to make way for the military base. In February, British authorities served eviction notices on four Chagossians who had returned to a remote atoll in an attempt to disrupt the handover.
However, in a landmark ruling in March, the British Indian Ocean Territory Supreme Court quashed those eviction notices and ruled that Chagossians hold a lawful right of abode in the archipelago—a decision that complicates the treaty, which assumes no resident population.
Under the new proposals, the UK is planning a tightly controlled “heritage visit” for Chagossians, scheduled for the first or second quarter of 2027. The move is seen as an attempt to address human rights concerns while maintaining strict control over the territory ahead of the handover.
Reactions and Next Steps
Mauritian officials have welcomed the confirmation that the deal will proceed, viewing it as the final chapter of decolonization. However, the path forward remains uncertain. The legislation required to ratify the treaty—the Diego Garcia Military Base and British Indian Ocean Territory Bill—has been stalled in Parliament since January.
Burnham, who is expected to be confirmed as Labour leader on July 17 and formally appointed prime minister by the King three days later, will face immediate pressure from both Washington and domestic critics. Allies have reportedly warned him that reviving the deal could “enrage large parts of the US administration”.
For now, the UK appears determined to move forward. As one senior Foreign Office official put it, the plan to hand over the archipelago is “unlikely to change”. Whether that resolve will survive the incoming prime minister’s first encounter with President Trump remains to be seen.
