What Could Happen if the United States Attacks Iran? Possible Scenarios
The United States appears poised to strike Iran in the coming days. While the potential targets are largely predictable, the outcome is far less certain. If no last-minute deal can be reached with Tehran and President Donald Trump orders U.S. forces to attack, here are seven possible scenarios:
1. Targeted Strikes, Minimal Civilian Losses, Transition to Democracy
U.S. air and naval forces conduct limited, precise strikes against Revolutionary Guard bases, Basij paramilitary units, missile sites, and Iran’s nuclear program. In this optimistic scenario, a weakened regime collapses, paving the way for genuine democracy and reintegration into the global community. Yet history offers caution: Western interventions in Iraq and Libya toppled dictators but led to years of chaos and bloodshed. Syria’s own revolution in 2024, without Western military support, has so far fared better.
2. Regime Survives but Moderates Its Policies
This “Venezuelan model” envisions a swift U.S. strike that leaves the regime intact but forces it to soften policies reducing support for regional militias, scaling back nuclear and missile programs, and easing repression of protests. However, Iran’s leadership has remained defiant for nearly five decades, showing little willingness to change course.
3. Regime Collapses, Military Rule Emerges
Many analysts see this as the most likely outcome. Despite widespread unpopularity and years of protests, Iran’s powerful security apparatus has kept the regime in place. In the aftermath of U.S. strikes, it is conceivable that the country could fall under military rule dominated by the Revolutionary Guard.
4. Iran Retaliates Against U.S. Forces and Neighbors
Iran has vowed to respond to any U.S. attack, claiming its “finger is on the trigger.” Though no match for American military power, Iran could unleash missiles and drones hidden in caves and underground facilities. U.S. bases in Bahrain and Qatar, as well as critical infrastructure in countries seen as complicit—such as Jordan—could be targeted. The 2019 drone and rocket strike on Saudi Aramco facilities, attributed to Iran-backed militias, exposed the vulnerability of Gulf states.
5. Iran Mines the Persian Gulf
Mining the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic chokepoint—has long been a threat. Roughly 20–25% of global oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas exports pass through this narrow waterway. Iran has practiced rapid mine deployment, and any such move would disrupt global trade and spike energy prices.
6. Iran Sinks a U.S. Warship
Iranian naval commanders have trained extensively in unconventional “swarm” tactics—launching waves of explosive drones and fast attack boats to overwhelm U.S. defenses. Though unlikely, the sinking of a U.S. warship would be a major humiliation. Past incidents, such as the 2000 USS Cole bombing and the accidental 1987 missile strike on USS Stark, show such risks are not impossible.
7. Regime Collapses, Chaos Ensues
Perhaps the most dangerous scenario: the regime falls, but instead of democracy, Iran plunges into chaos. Civil war, ethnic conflict, and refugee crises could follow, destabilizing the region. While many neighbors—including Israel—would welcome the end of the Islamic Republic, none want to see the Middle East’s most populous nation (93 million people) descend into humanitarian disaster.
The greatest risk now is that President Trump, having assembled a powerful force near Iran’s borders, may feel compelled to act to avoid losing face triggering a war with unpredictable and potentially devastating consequences.
