YAOUNDÉ, Cameroon – Cameroon’s political stability is on a knife-edge as opposition candidate Issa Tchiroma Bakary has unilaterally declared himself the “clear winner” of the October 12 presidential election, calling for immediate protests to “defend the vote.”
The move creates a direct confrontation with the government of Paul Biya, the 92-year-old incumbent who has ruled the Central African nation since 1982.
While no final tally has been published by the nation’s election commission, Biya’s ruling CPDM party insists that initial results still point toward his re-election. Government officials have issued stark warnings, vowing “legal consequences” if Bakary continues to bypass the official process.
The standoff threatens to destabilize the country, with Bakary’s supporters reportedly already mobilizing. Past election disputes in Cameroon have frequently been met with heavy-handed security crackdowns, raising fears of potential violence.
At stake is the very credibility of Cameroon’s democratic institutions. “Any perceived manipulation of the count could undermine what little confidence remains,” one regional analyst noted.
The competing claims place intense scrutiny on the Constitutional Court, which is legally required to certify the final results by October 26. Key players in the impasse include:
- President Paul Biya and his CPDM party, which maintain control over state institutions and the electoral machinery.
- Issa Tchiroma Bakary, a former government minister turned challenger, who insists he won by a “massive margin” and is resisting what he terms “fraudulent procedures.”
- Regional observers, such as those from the African Union, whose limited access has raised questions about their ability to provide independent verification of the vote.
The crisis has implications far beyond Cameroon’s borders. As a pivotal nation in the region, any prolonged instability could impact regional trade, security, and migration. The political risk is also being closely monitored by foreign investors, who have significant interests in Cameroon’s oil, agriculture, and infrastructure sectors.
With the nation bracing for the official announcement, all eyes are on the government’s next move. The key questions remain: Will the security forces crack down on protests? Will the Constitutional Court’s decision be seen as legitimate? And can Cameroon’s institutions navigate this crisis peacefully, or will the nation descend into confrontation?
The coming days will not just decide who leads Cameroon, but may determine whether the nation can avoid a governance vacuum and move forward.
