KHARTOUM, Sudan – The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has issued a forceful denial of paramilitary claims to have captured El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state and the last major SAF garrison in the vast western region. The denial follows a statement by the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF) asserting control of the strategic gateway city, a claim that, if verified, would mark a pivotal military and political shift in Sudan’s devastating 18-month civil war.
Control of El-Fasher, the final SAF foothold in Darfur, is seen as critical to the war’s outcome. Its capture by the RSF, commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti,” would effectively grant the paramilitary force complete territorial dominance over Darfur’s five states. Analysts warn this could accelerate a de facto partition of Sudan, with the SAF under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan controlling the east and the RSF consolidating a power base in the resource-rich west.
“The battle for El-Fasher is not just about a city; it is about the future sovereignty and territorial integrity of Sudan,” said regional security analyst Annette Hoffman. “An RSF victory there provides the tangible territory to underpin its political project and could reshape the map of the conflict irreversibly.”
The situation on the ground remains opaque due to severe restrictions on media and humanitarian access. However, the reported fall of the city follows a year-long siege characterized by extreme violence against civilians, destruction of critical infrastructure including hospitals, and mass displacement. El-Fasher had become a refuge for hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons fleeing earlier violence in the region.
The potential ramifications extend far beyond the city limits:
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Political Consolidation: RSF control of Darfur strengthens Hemedti’s position to legitimize a parallel governing authority. The group has already announced a “Government of Peace and Unity,” and territorial control provides a base to pursue formal autonomy or recognition.
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Humanitarian Catastrophe: Aid agencies fear a new wave of atrocities should the RSF solidify control, citing the force’s origins in the Janjaweed militias and its documented record of ethnically targeted violence and war crimes in Darfur.
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Regional Security: Darfur’s porous borders with Chad, Libya, and the Central African Republic are vital supply corridors. RSF dominion would secure these routes, deepening regional tensions as neighbors contend with refugee flows, armed group spillover, and allegations of external backing for the paramilitaries, notably from the United Arab Emirates.
The SAF’s swift denial is viewed as an attempt to maintain domestic and international morale amid a string of setbacks in the west. For General al-Burhan’s government, the loss of El-Fasher represents a profound strategic and symbolic defeat, undermining its claim as the sole legitimate guardian of Sudanese unity and weakening its hand in any future negotiations.
As the conflicting narratives battle for dominance, the immediate reality for civilians in El-Fasher remains one of extreme peril, with the international community warning of potential mass atrocities and a further collapse of humanitarian lifelines.
