NATO nations are on edge as Russia and Belarus kick off their largest joint military exercises since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, just days after a Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace reignited fears of a broader conflict spilling into alliance territory.
The five-day war games, dubbed Zapad 2025—“Zapad” meaning “West” in Russian—are being closely watched by NATO members, particularly Poland and Lithuania, which share borders with Belarus. The timing of the drills, following a provocative drone breach, has raised alarms about Moscow’s intentions and the preparedness of NATO’s eastern flank.
The last time Russia and Belarus held joint drills in February 2022, Russian forces invaded Ukraine days later, many crossing through Belarus. That precedent looms large over the current exercises, which Western analysts fear could be a rehearsal for future aggression.
While Belarusian officials have downplayed the scale—citing fewer than 13,000 troops, compared to 200,000 in 2021—some units are reportedly operating near Poland and Lithuania. Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin confirmed that troops will simulate repelling a “hypothetical enemy” near NATO borders.
A key focus of the drills is nuclear strategy. Following a December treaty placing Belarus under Russia’s nuclear umbrella, troops will practice planning the use of Russian nuclear-capable missiles. Experts warn this signals a growing nuclear threat to Europe.
“The West can hope to learn what role Belarus might play in a Russian nuclear operation,” said Ryhor Nizhnikau of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
In response, Poland has closed its border with Belarus and restricted civilian air traffic near the frontier. Prime Minister Donald Tusk labeled the drills “very aggressive,” citing the Suwalki Gap—a strategic corridor between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave—as a potential target.
Poland, Lithuania, and Germany are conducting their own military exercises, including Germany’s Quadriga 2025, to reassure citizens and demonstrate readiness. Yet analysts caution that real lessons lie in Ukraine’s battlefield, not simulated war games.
The recent drone incursion exposed NATO’s vulnerabilities. Despite deploying advanced aircraft and missile systems, only three of the low-cost Russian drones—made of polystyrene and costing around $10,000—were shot down.
French Admiral Pierre Vandier warned of a “price-per-shot” dilemma: “If we fire $1 million missiles at $10,000 targets, one day, we will lose.”
Strategic experts argue NATO needs a “drone wall” and better early-warning systems. Phillips P. O’Brien of St Andrews University noted the incursion was minor compared to Ukraine’s nightly drone barrages, yet NATO’s response revealed a lack of preparation.
As Zapad 2025 unfolds, NATO faces a dual challenge: interpreting Russia’s military signals and addressing its own gaps in drone defense and strategic deterrence. The drills may be scaled down, but the message from Moscow and Minsk is loud—and Western capitals are listening.
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