Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is reportedly preparing to step down by the end of August, following a decisive upper house election loss and the conclusion of a sweeping trade agreement with the United States. Local media reports suggest Mr. Ishiba has informed close aides of his intention to resign, though no formal announcement has been made.
The embattled leader has faced growing dissent within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) after its coalition failed to retain a majority in Sunday’s vote. According to the Yomiuri and other national dailies, Mr. Ishiba has pledged to address his future after finalising ongoing trade talks with Washington.
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced via Truth Social that a “massive” $550 billion bilateral agreement had been reached, cutting proposed tariffs on Japanese goods from 25% to 15%. The deal includes significant investments into the US economy, with the Prime Minister later noting the tariff rate to be “the lowest among surplus nations trading with the US.”
While speculation swirls around his political future, Mr. Ishiba remained cautious, telling reporters he will only decide on his resignation after reviewing the deal’s outcomes with chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa. “I can’t say until I scrutinise the outcome of the agreement,” he stated.
Despite denying reports of an imminent resignation as “completely unfounded,” sources close to Mr. Ishiba say his decision to remain temporarily was driven by a desire to avoid instability before the trade deadline of August 1. The Prime Minister is expected to meet senior LDP officials and three former premiers this week to discuss the implications of the election results and a leadership transition.
Once he formally steps aside, the LDP must hold a leadership election to nominate his successor. However, the loss of the coalition’s majority in both chambers of the Diet may complicate the process, potentially requiring cross-party support for the new prime minister.
August holds symbolic weight in Japan’s political calendar. Alongside war anniversaries and commemorations, this year’s schedule includes the Tokyo-hosted Africa development summit from August 20–22 — a likely bookend to Mr. Ishiba’s tenure.
Public sentiment has cooled significantly, with recent polling placing the cabinet’s approval at just over 20% — widely viewed as unsustainable. Analysts anticipate an extended period of leadership uncertainty. “What this means is that we’re entering a period of speculation as to who’s going to be the next leader,” said William Chou of the Hudson Institute.
