SOUTH KIVU, Democratic Republic of the Congo — In a dramatic move that directly challenges a high-stakes diplomatic initiative, the AFC/M23 rebel coalition claimed control of the strategic town of Sange in South Kivu on Tuesday, announcing an imminent advance on the key city of Uvira. This major southern offensive comes merely days after the United States mediated the signing of the “Washington Accords” between the DRC and Rwanda, aiming to resolve the decades-long conflict in the region.
A Fragile Agreement Meets a Rapidly Shifting Battlefield
On December 5, under U.S. auspices, Rwandan President Paul Kagame and DRC President Félix Tshisekedi endorsed a framework agreement in Washington D.C. Hailed as unprecedented, the accords sought to synchronize political, security, and economic tracks to address the root causes of instability in eastern DRC, which has displaced over 7 million people. The deal emphasized the cessation of support for armed groups, the withdrawal of M23 forces from occupied territories, and mechanisms to address DRC’s accusations that Rwanda backs the M23—a claim Kigali consistently denies.
The capture of Sange, located on the vital RN5 highway linking Bukavu to Uvira, signals a severe escalation. However, emerging reports reveal M23 forces likely exploited a critical window of vulnerability. In the days preceding the takeover, Sange was the scene of fierce internal clashes within the pro-government coalition. Local sources and conflict monitors reported at least 36 dead and 19 wounded in fighting that erupted between the Congolese army (FARDC) and fighters from the Wazalendo (Patriotic) militias in Sange. This internal fragmentation and infighting among forces nominally aligned to defend against the M23 appears to have critically weakened the town’s defenses, facilitating the rebel group’s subsequent advance.
Military analysts note that opening a southern front in South Kivu represents a significant expansion of the M23’s operational theater. An advance on Uvira, a major economic hub on the border with Burundi, would threaten to further destabilize the entire southern corridor.
Regional Context: A History of Fractured Diplomacy
This latest offensive casts a long shadow over the new Washington agreement, the latest in a series of failed regional pacts. President Kagame, in a recent Al Jazeera interview, explicitly voiced doubts about Kinshasa’s commitment, citing DRC’s “history of non-compliance” with past agreements. He expressed cautious optimism about the U.S.-led process but framed Rwanda’s actions as a security imperative.
The core grievances remain starkly at odds. The DRC government, UN experts, and Western powers accuse Rwanda of supporting M23 and profiting from an illicit mineral trade estimated at $1 billion annually. Rwanda denies this, with Kagame pointing to Rwanda’s own mineral wealth—including being the world’s fourth-largest tungsten producer—as proof it has no need to plunder its neighbor.
Immediate Reactions and the Path Ahead
The DRC government has condemned the seizure of Sange. The reported infighting between the FARDC and Wazalendo militias, however, highlights a profound challenge for Kinshasa: maintaining a coherent and unified front against a disciplined rebel force.
Regional observers are now questioning the viability of the Washington framework. “The timing is devastating, but perhaps predictable,” said Dr. Aline Nkundimana, a Great Lakes analyst. “The internal clashes in Sange before its fall exemplify the chaotic and fragmented nature of the conflict on the Congolese side. The Washington Accords created a technical roadmap, but they did not alter the immediate military calculus or the deep-seated mistrust. Without immediate and forceful international pressure to freeze the frontlines and unify Kinshasa’s response, the accord risks joining its predecessors on the shelf.”
The international community, particularly the United States, now faces its first major test. The coming days will reveal whether this new offensive, enabled in part by internal Congolese divisions, triggers a collapse of diplomacy or forces a more urgent and robust international intervention to salvage the agreement.
