In a development that could reshape the political and security landscape of northern Ethiopia, credible sources report that the federal government in Addis Ababa is covertly supporting the creation of an armed Tigrayan opposition group operating from the Afar region.
The move is seen by analysts as part of a broader strategy to counter the influence of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the dominant political force in Tigray, which fought a brutal two-year civil war against Ethiopian federal forces between 2020 and 2022.
According to local officials and regional security experts, the emerging armed group comprises former TPLF defectors, marginalized Tigrayan figures, and individuals who oppose the TPLF’s continued control of the Tigray region. The group has reportedly received logistical and military support from federal agents operating within Afar territory.
The Afar region, located to the east of Tigray, has long been a geopolitical hotspot due to its proximity to the Djibouti corridor—Ethiopia’s main trade route. By backing an armed opposition in the area, Addis Ababa may be attempting to contain any resurgence of TPLF power while maintaining influence over a critical strategic zone.
“The government seems to be using Afar as a staging ground to exert pressure on the TPLF without directly reigniting the northern conflict,” said a Horn of Africa political analyst who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.
While the federal government has not officially acknowledged involvement in the group’s formation, high-ranking sources within the Afar regional administration expressed concerns about the militarization of the region and the risks of a new conflict.
“This is a dangerous game,” said an Afar security official. “Bringing another armed group into an already fragile region could destabilize not just Afar but the entire northern corridor.”
Humanitarian groups have also raised alarms over the potential impact on civilians. Afar and Tigray are still recovering from the devastation of the previous war, which displaced millions and caused widespread suffering.
The TPLF has not yet officially commented on the reports. However, party insiders claim that such maneuvers by Addis Ababa are aimed at dividing Tigrayan unity and obstructing post-war reconstruction efforts in the region.
“If true, this is a clear violation of the peace process and a sign that the federal government is not genuinely committed to reconciliation,” said a senior TPLF member based in Mekelle.
The emergence of a new armed faction backed by Addis Ababa could further complicate Ethiopia’s fragile political transition and raise tensions among its ethnically divided regions. It may also draw the attention of international observers and human rights watchdogs already concerned about Ethiopia’s post-conflict trajectory.
As the situation evolves, calls are mounting for transparency, inclusive political dialogue, and adherence to the peace agreement signed in Pretoria in November 2022 between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government.
