A major scientific report released on February 17, 2026 warns that Europe must prepare for the possibility of up to 3 °C of global warming by the end of the century, far above the 1.5 °C goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement. The findings come from the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC), an expert body that advises the European Union on climate adaptation and risk. The report underscores that current adaptation measures in Europe are insufficient, even as extreme weather events grow more frequent and destructive across the continent.
Climate expert Maarten van Aalst, a member of the advisory board and director general of the Netherlands’ Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, described the challenge as “daunting but doable,” stressing that many adaptation strategies are “common sense and low‑hanging fruit.” He told reporters that Europe is already “paying a price” for inadequate preparation, as heatwaves, floods and wildfires have caused increasing damage in recent years.
The board’s analysis lays out climate scenarios where the global average temperature could rise between 2.8 °C and 3.3 °C compared with pre‑industrial levels by 2100 — a range that far exceeds the Paris targets and would significantly worsen climate impacts. ESABCC experts argue that adaptation planning must now anticipate such outcomes and be integrated across all sectors of public policy.
According to the advisory board, Europe is warming at roughly twice the global average, meaning the continent could experience even greater temperature increases than the global figure. The report points to recent storms, heatwaves and floods that have caused mortality and economic losses, highlighting the urgent need to strengthen early‑warning systems and infrastructure resilience.
Ottmar Edenhofer, chair of the advisory board, said that climate change is already inflicting “severe losses across Europe,” noting that extreme heat alone resulted in tens of thousands of premature deaths in recent years and that economic damage from climate extremes now averages about €45 billion annually. He emphasized that adaptation is “not optional, but essential” to protect lives, livelihoods and economic stability.
The report also calls on EU countries to undertake mandatory climate risk assessments, harmonized across national and EU policy, and adopt a clear vision for a climate‑resilient Europe by 2050. Scientists argue that such coordinated action is needed because insufficient adaptation in one part of the bloc may undermine resilience across the entire region.
Beyond adaptation, the advisory board insists that mitigation — cutting greenhouse gas emissions — must advance in tandem. Without deep emission reductions, the risks and costs of climate change will only grow, potentially weakening Europe’s competitiveness and straining public budgets in the decades ahead, the report warns.
