Uganda enters its 2026 general elections at a moment of profound political tension. President Yoweri Museveni, now 81, is seeking to extend his nearly four-decade rule into a fifth decade, standing once again as the National Resistance Movement (NRM) candidate. The vote, scheduled for January 12, 2026, is widely seen not just as an electoral contest but as a referendum on the nature of power in Uganda—whether governance will continue to rest on security dominance and liberation-era legitimacy, or whether it must transition toward accountability, inclusion, and generational renewal.
The Contenders and the Campaign
Museveni has campaigned on a platform of “protecting the gains”, presenting himself as the guarantor of stability, peace, and economic progress. He has promised to steer Uganda toward middle-income status, buoyed by expectations of oil production beginning later this year. His challenger, Robert Kyagulanyi—better known as Bobi Wine—has mobilized Uganda’s youthful population, more than 70% of whom are under 30. Wine frames the election as a struggle against authoritarianism, appealing to voters frustrated by unemployment, inflation, and limited opportunity.
Security Clampdown and Human Rights Concerns
The campaign has unfolded under heavy militarisation. Security forces have repeatedly disrupted opposition rallies, killing at least one person and arresting hundreds of Wine’s supporters. In the days before the vote, the military was deployed across Kampala, while internet and mobile services were restricted nationwide. The U.N. Human Rights Office has warned that the elections are taking place amid “widespread repression and intimidation”, raising concerns about credibility.
Museveni and Western Strategic Interests
Since seizing power in 1986, Museveni has entrenched his authority by removing constitutional term and age limits. Despite persistent allegations of human rights abuses and flawed elections, he remains a key Western partner. Uganda plays a strategic role in regional security—deploying troops to Somalia and hosting millions of refugees. Oil projects led by TotalEnergies and China’s CNOOC further strengthen his international standing.
Muted International Scrutiny
Unlike in 2021, when Washington denounced Museveni’s victory as neither free nor fair, strong criticism from the U.S. appears unlikely this time. Analysts note that U.S. diplomats have been instructed not to publicly comment on the integrity of foreign elections, reducing external pressure on Kampala despite renewed reports of abuses.
Succession in Focus
Beyond the immediate vote, succession looms large. Museveni is widely believed to favour his son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, though he denies grooming him as heir. Kainerugaba has openly expressed presidential ambitions, often through incendiary social media posts. Yet his presumed succession is contested within the ruling party, raising the risk of elite fragmentation once Museveni exits the scene.
Analysis
While Museveni is expected to secure another term, the election underscores Uganda’s deeper structural dilemma: political stability is increasingly tied to the longevity of one man. Each extension of Museveni’s rule delays an inevitable leadership transition, amplifying uncertainty rather than resolving it. In the short term, repression may contain unrest. In the longer term, unresolved succession questions combined with a youthful, economically strained population pose a significant risk to Uganda’s post-Museveni future. Stability, in this context, may be less a permanent condition than a carefully managed pause
