WASHINGTON/TEL AVIV — Vice President JD Vance departed for Israel on Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s top envoy in a high-stakes diplomatic mission to salvage the fragile Gaza ceasefire that threatens to collapse just days after taking effect, with both Israeli and Hamas forces already accused of multiple violations.
The visit underscores the Trump administration’s high level of involvement in mediating the conflict between Israel and Hamas, as lawmakers remain divided over how involved the U.S. should be in administering the next phases of the 20-point peace plan. Vance’s mission comes at a critical juncture, as the agreement that ended more than two years of devastating warfare shows alarming signs of unraveling.
A Fragile Peace Under Siege
The ceasefire, which went into effect on October 10, established an outline for hostage and prisoner exchanges and proposed an ambitious roadmap for Gaza’s future. In its first phase, Hamas released 20 living hostages in exchange for Israel’s release of 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, including 250 serving life sentences and 1,700 prisoners detained since the war began.
But the implementation has quickly faced severe challenges. Israel carried out dozens of strikes in Gaza on Sunday using 153 tons of explosives, according to Netanyahu, targeting Hamas after two Israeli soldiers were killed in the territory’s south. Gaza’s civil defence agency said the strikes killed at least 45 people across the territory.
On Sunday, Hamas terrorists fired an anti-tank missile and small arms fire at IDF troops operating in the Rafah area of southern Gaza, resulting in the deaths of two Israeli soldiers. The Israeli prime minister accused the militant group of “a blatant violation” of the ceasefire—an accusation Hamas denied.
The violence prompted Trump to issue a stark ultimatum. “We made a deal with Hamas that they’re going to be very good, they’re going to behave, they’re going to be nice,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday. “If they’re not, we’re going to go and we’re going to eradicate them, if we have to”.
The Vice President’s Critical Mission
Vance is set to arrive in Israel on Tuesday to help reinforce the fragile ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, symbolizing a critical step in implementing the second phase of the 20-point Gaza peace plan. He is set to hold talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said they would be discussing regional “security challenges” and “diplomatic opportunities”.
During his Tuesday trip to the Middle East, Vance is expected to meet with Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog, as well as U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and the families of released hostages. He may also visit the U.S. command center in Israel, where around 200 American soldiers are currently stationed to monitor the ceasefire’s progress.
Vance acknowledged the negotiations are going to be “complicated,” and U.S. officials have urged caution in recent days, suggesting the next phase will play out in several weeks and months to come.
Vance is not alone in this diplomatic push. Special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and businessman Jared Kushner arrived in Israel on Monday morning to bolster the ceasefire agreement and to continue implementation of the second phase of Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan.
The Thorniest Obstacle: Disarmament
The biggest sticking point for the rest of the peace plan is Hamas disarming and Israel fully withdrawing troops from Gaza. Republicans and Democrats agreed that would require both U.S. and Middle East cooperation.
Getting Hamas to disarm will require significant pressure, and it will require the U.S. to press Turkey and Qatar to use their leverage with Hamas—two allies that acted as guarantors in negotiations for the militant group. The challenge is magnified by the fact that Hamas has not agreed to back away from the governance of Gaza, as Trump’s plan dictates, stimulating concern about the administration’s ability to pull off the second phase.
For his part, Vance is expected to lean heavily on Netanyahu to respond less aggressively with Israel Defense Forces to alleged ceasefire violations. “The message is quite simple: please don’t respond with the full force of the IDF”.
This represents a delicate balancing act. The vice president must simultaneously pressure Hamas to fulfill its obligations while restraining Israel from actions that could shatter the ceasefire entirely.
Trump’s 20-Point Roadmap
The peace plan that Vance is working to implement is ambitious and comprehensive. Announced by Trump on September 29 during a White House meeting with Netanyahu, the 20-point proposal represents what the president called “potentially one of the great days ever in civilization.”
Under the plan’s key provisions:
- All captives held in Gaza alive and dead are to be returned within 72 hours of acceptance. The Gaza Strip is to be temporarily governed by a Palestinian technocratic government, with no role for Hamas, and Israel will not annex Gaza.
- Once all hostages are returned, Hamas members who commit to peaceful co-existence and to decommission their weapons will be given amnesty. Members of Hamas who wish to leave Gaza will be provided safe passage to receiving countries.
- Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, with oversight and supervision by a new international transitional body, the “Board of Peace,” which will be headed and chaired by President Donald J Trump, with other members including Former Prime Minister Tony Blair.
- An interfaith dialogue process will be established based on the values of tolerance and peaceful co-existence to try and change mindsets and narratives of Palestinians and Israelis by emphasizing the benefits that can be derived from peace.
The plan received widespread international support. In a joint statement, eight Arab and Muslim nations backed the plan, saying that it “creates a path for a just peace on the basis of a two-state solution”. The Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the occupied West Bank, also supported the proposal.
The Reality on the Ground
The war that the ceasefire aims to end has exacted a devastating toll. Israel’s retaliatory offensive following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack has killed at least 68,216 people in Gaza, according to the Palestinian health ministry—figures the United Nations considers credible. The data does not distinguish between civilians and combatants but indicates that more than half of the dead are women and children.
Under Trump’s 20-point plan, Israeli forces have withdrawn beyond the so-called “Yellow Line”—which leaves them in control of around half of Gaza, including the territory’s borders, but not its main cities. However, Israeli troops have fired on Gazans they say were approaching their new positions several times since the ceasefire was declared.
The humanitarian situation remains dire. Despite the ceasefire, aid delivery has been intermittent. Following Israeli airstrikes in retaliation for the deaths of the two IDF soldiers, the Israeli military temporarily halted humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza. However, after being pressured from the U.S., aid shipments to Gaza resumed shortly after.
Political Pressures at Home
Vance’s mission also reflects domestic political tensions within the Trump coalition. At the same time there are calls from “America First” Republicans to let Middle Eastern countries take the lead on the next phases of the peace plan. This faction argues that the U.S. should limit its involvement in what they see as a regional conflict.
Representative Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, offered a different perspective: “Now that this shooting has basically stopped for the moment, I hope that the other countries that are involved from that part of the world will be able to help keep the calm so that we can really move toward a more implementable agreement to recover on the ground. I think that’s going to take a lot of coordination. And I know the United States will be a partner in that”.
The Hostage Crisis Continues
Adding urgency to Vance’s mission is the ongoing hostage crisis. Israel has accused Hamas of already violating the ceasefire deal by withholding the bodies of the remaining deceased hostages thought to have died during or after the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023. Hamas has said the return of the remaining bodies “may take some time” due to the destruction.
After Hamas-linked gunmen appeared to carry out a public execution in Gaza earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened that if “Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, which was not the Deal, we will have no choice but to go in and kill them”.
On Monday, there was a small breakthrough. Israel said that remains of a hostage held in Gaza, returned by Hamas a day earlier, had been identified as those of Tal Chaimi, a non-commissioned officer killed on October 7, 2023. The IDF said Sgt. Maj. Tal Haimi, commander of the alert squad at Nir Yitzhak, died in battle while defending the kibbutz on the morning of Oct. 7, 2023, and his body was abducted by Hamas. Haimi, aged 41 at the time of his death, was declared dead in December 2023. He leaves behind a wife, four children, a father and a sister.
What Comes Next
Vance’s visit to Israel ratchets up the level of involvement from the Trump administration in talks at a crucial moment, and as the president turns his attention to resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and a trade dispute with China.
The success or failure of Vance’s mission could determine whether Trump’s ambitious peace plan survives past its first phase. Both sides have said they remain committed to the US-backed truce despite the weekend’s violence, but words of commitment mean little without concrete actions on the ground.
The United Nations said it was “concerned by all acts of violence in Gaza” and urged “all parties to honour all of their commitments to ensure the protection of civilians and avoid any actions that could lead to a renewal of hostilities and undermine humanitarian operations”.
For the Trump administration, the stakes are enormous. A successful implementation of the Gaza peace plan would represent a major foreign policy achievement and validate Trump’s approach to Middle East diplomacy. Failure, on the other hand, would mean a return to the devastating conflict that has already claimed tens of thousands of lives.
As Vance boards Air Force Two for the journey to Tel Aviv, he carries with him not just the hopes of the Trump administration, but the desperate aspirations of millions of Israelis and Palestinians who have endured more than two years of war. Whether his diplomatic intervention can prevent the fragile peace from collapsing entirely may determine the course of the Middle East for years to come.
The vice president’s challenge is clear: convince both Netanyahu and Hamas that they have more to gain from restraint than from renewed violence. In a region where mistrust runs deep and memories of trauma are fresh, that may prove to be the most difficult negotiation of all.
