Deep funding cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and its absorption into the State Department could result in more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030, according to a new study published in The Lancet medical journal.
The research, released Monday, paints a grim picture of the global health consequences stemming from the Trump administration’s decision to slash over 80% of USAID’s programs. The agency, long regarded as a cornerstone of U.S. humanitarian diplomacy, officially ceased to exist as an independent body on Monday after six decades of operation.
> “Unless the abrupt funding cuts announced and implemented in the first half of 2025 are reversed, a staggering number of avoidable deaths could occur by 2030,” the study warned.
A Legacy Undone
Created in 1961 by President John F. Kennedy, USAID has played a pivotal role in promoting global health, economic development, and democratic governance. Over the past two decades, USAID-funded programs are estimated to have prevented 91 million deaths globally, including 30 million children.
The study projects that the dismantling of the agency could lead to 4.5 million additional deaths among children under five, with the greatest impact expected in low- and middle-income countries, particularly across Africa.
Political Fallout and Public Outcry
The decision to dissolve USAID has drawn rare bipartisan criticism. In a joint farewell video to USAID staff, former Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush condemned the move. Obama called it “a colossal mistake,” while Bush praised the agency’s legacy of “compassionate leadership.”
Even U2 frontman Bono, a longtime advocate for global health, joined the tribute, reciting a poem in honor of the agency’s mission and staff.
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the administration’s actions, stating that the remaining 1,000 programs would be “administered more effectively” under the State Department. President Trump, who has repeatedly criticized USAID as “wasteful” and “fraud-ridden,” claimed the restructuring was necessary to eliminate inefficiencies.
Global Implications
The United States remains the world’s largest humanitarian donor, contributing 38% of all aid recorded by the United Nations. In 2024 alone, Washington disbursed $61 billion in foreign assistance, with more than half channeled through USAID.
Human rights advocates and global health experts warn that the cuts could reverse decades of progress in disease prevention, maternal health, and child survival.
“For many low- and middle-income countries, the resulting shock would be comparable in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict,” said Dr. Davide Rasella, co-author of the study and researcher at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health.
